Prices

With what we have all read about the housing market over the last year I would bet that at times we have all wondered what the future holds for the value of our homes. Although my crystal ball is currently broken and even when it wasn't broken it didn't work all that well there is no way of knowing what the future holds. There is data available though to give us a glimpse of what might happen in the future.
PMI Mortgage Insurance Co. publishes a wealth of data. One of the statistics they calculate is the U.S. Market Risk Index score (SM of PMI Mortgage Insurance Co.). This score translates to a percentage that predicts the probability that house prices will be lower in two years. For example, a Risk Index score of 100 means there is a 100 percent chance that the OFHEO (Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight) All Transactions House Price Index for that MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area) will be lower two years from the date of the data. Sorry for all of the initials but you know the government.
How did the Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA area rate? In both the third and fourth quarters of 2007 this index showed less than 1%. That in my opinion is great news. Of the top 50 housing markets in the US only thirteen showed an index of 1% or less for these two quarters and five of those thirteen markets were in Texas. Good news for us and our state.
Now you are probably saying "great my home won't decrease in value but will it increase?". We will address price volatility and appreciation later this week.
Hopefully by making you aware of this data I can make you a better educated real estate consumer. It is all not doom and gloom, especially in Texas.
I hope you had a great weekend and will have a great work week.
Ron